Determinants of Environmental Emissions and Policy Implications: Evidence from Tanzania 1990 to 2023

This study examines the economic determinants of environmental emissions in Tanzania from 1990 to 2023, focusing on key macroeconomic factors such as land use (LU), gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), renewable energy consumption (REC), and population growth rate (PGR). Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Johansen’s co-integration test, the study investigates both short- and long-run relationships between these variables and environmental emissions. The results indicate that LU, GDP, and FDI have a significant positive impact on emissions, implying that economic expansion and foreign investments contribute to environmental degradation. Conversely, REC negatively influences emissions, highlighting the importance of renewable energy adoption in mitigating pollution. The findings also suggest that PGR (Population Growth Rate) contributes to increased emissions through rising energy demand, urbanization, and expansion of economic activities. The VECM results show that emissions adjust to equilibrium in response to economic shocks. Despite the existence of environmental policies, their effectiveness appears limited due to weak enforcement mechanisms. The study concludes that stringent environmental regulations, coupled with increased investment in renewable energy, are essential to curb emissions. Additionally, policies should focus on sustainable land use and responsible foreign investment.