Determinants of Land Value Appreciation Dynamics in the Lekki Corridor, Nigeria

Background: The Lekki Corridor of Lagos State has emerged as one of Nigeria’s fastest-growing real estate markets, but land value appreciation patterns vary significantly across its sub-markets. This study investigates the determinants driving these dynamics.  Methods: A survey research design was adopted, targeting 276 estate surveying and valuation firms in the corridor. Using the Kothari formula, a sample of 161 firms was selected, with 143 valid responses retrieved, representing 88.82%. Data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Factor analysis (KMO = 0.841; Bartlett’s χ2 = 1607.622, p < 0.001) was employed to identify underlying determinants of land value appreciation.  Results: Findings reveal substantial land value growth between 2010 and 2024. Established areas such as Lekki Phase 1 (650%) and Chevron Drive (567%) recorded steady appreciation, while emerging hubs including Ibeju-Lekki (2,900%), Sangotedo (1,525%), Jakande (1,014%), and Ikate Elegushi (1,014%) experienced explosive increases driven by mega-projects and infrastructure. Factor analysis identified four principal components explaining 69.97% of total variance: socioeconomic growth drivers, macroeconomic and spatial-structural dynamics, financial structuring and market mechanisms, and institutional governance capacity. Among determinants, developer financing and installment schemes (mean = 4.18), land fragmentation (mean = 4.17), and flood risk (mean = 3.93) ranked highest, while weak judicial effectiveness (mean = 3.06) and corruption in land allocation (mean = 3.20) were notable constraints.  Conclusion: The Lekki Corridor demonstrates both stable and speculative land appreciation patterns. Sustainable real estate growth requires strengthened governance, resilient urban planning, flexible financing mechanisms, and effective land administration reforms.