Analysis of the Disparity between Rice Import, Production, and Consumption in Indonesia

Indonesian people's rice consumption can be met by domestic production. However, the government continues to import rice to maintain rice reserves and the stability of rice prices in the domestic market. However, the volume of imported rice is relatively high, where in 2023 rice imports reached 3,062,858, making Indonesia one of the largest rice importers in the world. This study aims to determine factors influencing rice imports, production, and consumption in Indonesia using secondary data from 2004 to 2023. The data analysis method uses a simultaneous equation model estimated by the Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method; this study includes three equations: rice import volume, domestic rice production, and public rice consumption. The study results show that the price of imported rice and the exchange rate significantly influence the volume of rice imports. In contrast, rice production significantly influences domestic rice production, and public rice consumption is influenced by population and per capita income.